China set to play double-faced game
07 Sep. 07:36
Pakistan is increasingly being seen to be what it is—a country that harbours and nurtures terror. It had a devil-may-care attitude when the Americans were looking the other way while they paid lip service to dealing with terror directed against India and Afghanistan, and China consciously abetted in their terror policies to spite India.
However, the declaration issued by the BRICS summit in China has woken the Pakistanis out of their stupor. The summit leaders who, besides India, included Brazil, Russia, South Africa and China, would have suffered a serious credibility loss if they had not included Pakistan- based terror outfits in their list of terrorist organizations.
The summit host, China, realized, somewhat belatedly, that it faced isolation in the comity of nations if it was seen opposing the inclusion of Jaish e- Mohammed, Lashkar e-Taiba and the Haqqani Network among perpetrators of terror. By persistently refusing to endorse JeM as a terror perpetrator, and its chief Masood Azhar as an international terrorist, the Chinese were losing ground internationally.
It is not as if Beijing has given up on Pakistan—far from it. It will now play a double-faced game, continuing to support Islamabad with material resources but wary of being identified as a prop for Pakistani terror.
It is still a mystery as to how the Chinese would deal with the UN when the resolution on JeM and Masood Azhar comes up again. Whatever they may do, they must realize that their credibility is seriously at stake and that their position would seem particularly untenable in the light of the fact that they signed the declaration at the BRICS summit.
So long as the Pakistan army continues to call the shots in regard to Pakistan’s India policy, there can be little hope of reining in of terror in that country. Time has shown that it is unrealistic to expect terror against the Pakistan state to be contained when terror against India from Pakistani soil is aided and abetted by the state. Double-standards on terror would never work. The sooner Pakistan realizes this, the better it would be for it.
As it appears, the Americans under the Donald Trump dispensation are more sincere in seeking to dismantle terror training camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and stopping the arming and exporting of terror to India from across the border than predecessor regimes. While now more than ever, they are obsessed with themselves, they see merit in containing China with India’s active participation.
India must exploit that motivation of the US to the full to protect Indian interests and to work out an umbrella deal with the Americans for security imperatives just as the Japanese have done.
Let us face it-the Chinese government is a slippery customer and in conjunction with the Pakistanis can be a formidable force to reckon with. Its tie-up with Islamabad over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is sinister and diabolical with the intention of controlling trade movement in the high seas.
Donald Trump may be a buffoon for the Americans but for India he could well be a godsend if he is convinced that a deal with the Indians would be in enlightened US interest. The CPEC would harm American interests by establishing Chinese hegemony over the seas and must be thwarted, come what may.
The Chinese are looking upon the CPEC also as a springboard to a tighter control over Pakistan. Having heaped huge debts over Pakistan, they see a big opportunity to establish a stranglehold.
Beijing is indeed as petrified of a firm Indian axis with the US and Japan as India is of a Chinese-Pak tie-up that extends beyond the CPEC.
The recent stand-off at the Doklam trijunction between China, Bhutan and India was a way for China to browbeat this country and to get India to bend over backwards. That this country stood its ground and played down the confrontation was a tribute to its sagacity and strategic maturity.
It should be no surprise if the Chinese now change their tactics and put up a show of engaging India in an embrace.
Wily as they are, they realize that a terrorist haven like Pakistan can be a dicey friend in the long run. The killing of two Chinese nationals in Pakistan has presented a reality check moment for China. An article published by the Chinese government organ Global Times recently said," Pakistan is known for its poor security record, and has long been a hotbed of international terrorism. This may pose a severe threat to China’s projects in the region." The two Chinese nationals were kidnapped in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province and allegedly killed by the Islamic State (IS).
Apprehensive of the shape of things to come the article said: "As an increasing number of Chinese enterprises are going global, the likelihood that China falls victim to international terrorist forces is correspondingly rising." It expresses the Chinese dilemma succinctly when it adds: "It is a tough task for Beijing to strike a balance between security and the need to go global.
Considering that the CPEC runs through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and the Chinese would be using Pakistan’s Gwadar port in Baluchistan where Baluchi rebels are active, China would increasingly see merit in cosying up to India to contain the Baluchis to the extent it can. The stick has been tried in Doklam so it may now be the turn of the carrot in Chinese policies towards India.
A major challenge lies ahead for Indian strategists –anticipating and understanding complex Chinese strategies and dealing with them with Indian interest being paramount.
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