Crisil lowers GDP forecast to 7% in FY18 post GST hiccups

Business Standard

Crisil lowers GDP forecast to 7% in FY18 post GST hiccups

Sep 04, 2017 08:46 PM

Domestic rating agency Crisil on Monday lowered its growth forecast to 7 per cent for fiscal 2018, down from 7.4 per cent earlier, as it sees disruptions arising from the implementation of the new uniform tax regime to continue to impact the economy for a few more quarters.

In the quarter to June, economic expansion slumped to 5.7 per cent, the slowest in the past three years and the country lost the tag of being the fastest growing large economy again to China.

This year will see some more headwinds in the form of GST (goods and services tax) related disruptions, even as the economy tries to recover from the impact of the note-ban announced last November, Crisil said in a report.

"We scale down our GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2018 to 7 per cent, from 7.4 per cent earlier. We believe GST- related disruptions will limit the upsides to growth for a few more quarters because there are uncertainties around the possibility of changes to the given tax structure and as businesses adjust to this new regime," it said.

The 7-per cent growth forecast implies a GDP growth of 7.4 per cent in the remaining three quarters and is still higher than the reading by most other analysts which are all under 7 per cent.

Crisil said the economy can only grind its way up in an environment of subdued global growth and weak domestic investments because the benefits of low commodity prices till last year may not be available this year and hence the bottomline may remain under pressure.

On the external front, though global growth prospects appear somewhat better relative to 2016, factors like the falling trade growth, rising geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding the pace of normalisation of monetary policy in the advanced nations, coupled with rupee appreciation would mean contribution of exports to domestic economic growth would be limited, it warned.

Crisil also warned that manufacturing growth could slow down to 7.6 per cent in the current fiscal year from 7.9 per cent last fiscal year. Agricultural growth, however, is expected to be buoyant.

"The services sector may perform a little better as we expect some improvement in areas such as trade, hotels & transportation, and financial services, real estate and professional services," it said, adding services may clip at 8.1 per cent compared to 7.7 per cent last year.

Comments

Check out the Nokia 2, a budget phone with a monster battery

Android Authority Check out the Nokia 2, a budget phone with a monster battery 19 hours ago HMD Global is slowly building up its portfolio of stock-Android-running smartphones. In addition to the trio of mid-rangers (Nokia 3, 5, and 6) it launched at MWC , the company bolstered its high-end with the Nokia 8 , and now the other side of spectrum is getting some attention. Just leaked by Evan Blass , the Nokia 2 looks… well, like a generic cheap phone. If you have a visceral hate of bezels, you’ll probably want to close this post and move on, but design is hardly the point here. Blass didn’t share any details about the Nokia 2, but we can make some educated guesses based on some other clues we’ve got about the phone. First, you might have noticed that the phones in the leaked renders show October 5 as the date. Dates in renders are often set to match the launch time, but this could be an old render and there’s still time for things to change. Read more Han...

How safe are our kids in schools?

TOI How safe are our kids in schools? 7 hours ago by Praveen Lenka Whatsapp Facebook Google Plus Twitter Email Linkedin SMS SHARE HIGHLIGHTS Parents’ Suggestions Feedback from parents should be taken in the right stride by school authorities. PTA should have more authority and a right to put their points across in all school matters, especially when it comes to the safety of their children. No child, especially small kids, should be allowed to go alone to the washroom. There should be zero tolerance for non-compliance with child safety guidelines. Official authorities should conduct regular checks in schools to ensure that they have implemented safety measures. Schools should take the help of professional counsellors/psychologists to interview potential recruits. Over the past two days, twin incidents of students getting assaulted in their school premises have been reported from the National Capital. Close on...

The Xiaomi Mi Mix 2 is smaller, faster, and probably a lot better

The Xiaomi Mi Mix 2 is smaller, faster, and probably a lot better Sep 11, 2017, 4:19am EDT Photo by Dan Seifert / The Verge As statements of intent in phone design go, it’s hard to think of a stronger one than the original Mi Mix. Calling it a “concept phone” and drawing on the talents of legendary designer Philippe Starck, Xiaomi built a minimalist slab dominated by a huge screen with tiny bezels that foreshadowed the biggest trend in 2017's smartphones. Unfortunately, it wasn’t the most practical phone to actually use. But now, just under a year later, Xiaomi is ready to reveal a sequel — and on first glance the Mi Mix 2 looks like a phone that you’d be far more likely to want to live with. A SMALLER SCREEN WITH A NARROWER ASPECT RATIO At 5.99 inches, the screen is quite a bit smaller than the colossal 6.44-inch panel used in the original. It’s likely to feel a little smaller than those numbers would imply, too, because it uses an 18:9 aspect ratio compared to 17:9, mean...

Praveen Lenka Official

Search This Blog